Google AI Overviews add 10% more queries - the metric advertisers missed

Key Takeaways

• AI Overviews spark roughly 1.08–1.12 × follow-up queries on eligible SERPs, adding an estimated 45–55 billion global searches per month - equivalent to 4–6 % more ad impressions after adjusting for ~60 % U.S. English coverage.
• Volume gains skew toward users aged 18–34 and toward multimodal inputs. Lens and Circle to Search sessions trigger 1.3 × more refinement queries than text-only sessions.
• Greater inventory is softening long-tail CPCs (-3 % to ‑5 % month-over-month in shopping and travel) while head terms with high commercial intent remain flat or rise slightly (+1 % to +3 %), producing a barbell effect.
• Organic clicks consolidate around sources cited in the snapshot: Similarweb panel data show cited domains gaining +7 % traffic, while non-cited domains lose ‑3 %.
• Monthly token processing doubled to 980 trillion, suggesting faster model iteration and shorter freshness windows for content.

Situation Snapshot

Trigger: Alphabet Q2 2025 earnings call, 23 July 2025. Google revealed that AI Overviews add “over 10 % more queries” and now reach 2 billion monthly users. Search revenue grew to $54.2 billion, up 12 % YoY. Token throughput across Google surfaces rose from 480 trillion in May to 980 trillion in July. No analyst on the call challenged the figures.

Breakdown & Mechanics

1. Query → LLM draft answer → Snapshot chips
   The user submits an initial question (text, image, or screen region). Gemini 1.5 Flash composes a summary citing 4–8 URLs and attaches “chips” such as “cost,” “near me,” or “DIY” based on historical intent clusters.
2. Chip click = new query
   Every chip tap receives a new query ID and launches a fresh auction. Because chips are more specific, ad density increases.
3. Younger cohorts over-index
   Internal cohort data show users aged 18–24 adopting chip refinements 14 % more often than users aged 35–54.
4. Elastic supply meets mostly fixed demand
   Extra inventory pushes CPCs lower where advertiser counts are thin (long tail). High-competition head terms keep bid floors stable or rising.

Impact Assessment

Paid Search

• Effect size: +4–6 % impressions, ‑2 % to +1 % average CPC across mixed portfolios.
• Beneficiaries: Categories rich in “how-to” or visual queries (home improvement, CPG, apparel).
• Losers: Verticals where the overview satisfies intent without a click (currency conversions, quick facts).
• Actions: Update impression forecasts, isolate campaigns tied to overview-eligible queries, and monitor chip queries in the search terms report.

Organic & Content

• Seventy percent of Overview snippets cite domains already ranking in positions 1–5, but 30 % pull from deeper results, rewarding niche authority.
• Actions: Strengthen factual markup, keep answer paragraphs to 25–50 words, include high-resolution images, and audit schema quarterly.

Creative & UX

• Rich images and alt text can surface inside the snapshot carousel; test image-first assets even for text queries.
• Overviews often push the first organic link 300–400 pixels below the fold on mobile—track real-estate shifts.

Operations & Budgeting

• Add a 5 % volume multiplier for overview-eligible terms in forecast models and adjust CPC assumptions by match type (exact head vs. broad long-tail).
• Faster model updates mean content freshness decays sooner; recalibrate update cadences.

Scenarios & Probabilities

• Likely (60 %): Overview coverage hits 70 % of queries by Q4 2025; incremental query lift stabilizes at 10–12 %.
• Possible Upside (25 %): The UI adds auto-suggested follow-ups, pushing lift to 15 % and trimming long-tail CPCs another 3–4 %.
• Edge Downside (15 %): Regulatory or publisher pushback forces Google to trim snapshot depth; query lift falls to 5 %, CPCs rebound.

Risks, Unknowns, Limitations

• Google’s 10 % figure is aggregated; vertical-level distribution remains undisclosed.
• Token metrics combine Workspace and Cloud usage, muting clarity on pure Search volumes.
• Panel-based traffic estimates carry a ±2 percentage-point error margin.
• Any change in chip tracking could reclassify follow-up queries and alter volume calculations.

Sources

• Alphabet, 23 Jul 2025, Earnings Call Transcript
• Google Ads Product Team, 18 Jun 2025, Advertiser Webinar “Generative Search Ads Trends”
• Tinuiti, 15 Jul 2025, Q2 Google Ads Benchmark Report
• Similarweb, 20 Jul 2025, “AI Overview Traffic Impact” Panel Data Notes