CTR Is Dropping but Google Says These AI Clicks Pay Better

Google says its new AI Overviews produce "higher-quality clicks," yet many publishers are seeing flat or falling organic traffic. This analysis examines what Google likely means by "quality," how ranking and SERP layouts have shifted, and what performance trade-offs are visible in real analytics data.

Key Takeaways

Expect a modest CTR decline (-3% to ‑6%) on informational queries that now surface an AI Overview, but engagement per visit typically rises 5%-10%.
Forums, user-generated reviews, and video pages gain share; thin summary pages and generic listicles lose.
Branded and commercial-intent queries remain largely unaffected so far (<1% CTR change), so near-term paid-search cannibalisation risk is low.
Shift measurement from raw clicks to "revenue per 1,000 impressions" (RPMI) to reflect fewer but more engaged visits.
Search Console lags up to 48 h on Overview roll-outs; use GA4 landing-page cohorts for interim monitoring.

Situation Snapshot

Trigger: Google blog post 27 May 2024 asserting AI Overviews drive "more queries and higher-quality clicks".
Roll-out: Overviews reached all US-English users on 14 May 2024.
Definition: Google classifies a "quality click" as one that does not immediately return to the SERP.
No numeric lift or sample size disclosed.
Sentiment: Publishers worry about zero-click risk; Google says overall traffic is "relatively stable" year over year.

How Ranking Flow Has Changed

Before May 2024

Query → Core ranking → Traditional snippet → Click

Now with AI Overviews

Query → System checks trigger model (NORA).
If triggered, Gemini generates an Overview citing 5-8 links.
User can expand the sources carousel, refine the query, or abandon the page.

Key Mechanics

The "bounce" metric Google references is collected via Chrome and Android telemetry, not just site analytics tags.
Overviews prioritise "fresh, experience-based content" per February 2024 Rater Guidelines, favouring Reddit, YouTube, and Stack Exchange links.
On mobile, 1-2 traditional organic links now appear below the fold, reducing quick-answer clicks but filtering for users seeking depth.

Early Data Points

Similarweb panel: US desktop position-1 CTR on informational keywords fell from 26% to 22% (-4 pp) between April and June 2024.
Median session duration for the remaining clicks rose from 47 s to 51 s (+8%).

Impact Assessment

Paid Search

Effect size: Neutral (<0.5% change in CPC or paid clicks).
Winners: Advertisers on brand and high-intent queries—SERP real estate unchanged.
Action: Monitor RSA headlines that duplicate Overview text and remove redundancy.

Organic Content

Effect size: Moderate. CTR drop largest on "how" and "why" queries (-6% average).
Winners: Sites with first-hand reviews, forum threads, and video transcripts.
Losers: Thin affiliate round-ups and synonym-stuffed FAQs.
Actions: group pages by content type and track RPMI; add DiscussionForumPosting or MediaObject schema to earn citation slots.

Analytics & Ops

Search Console filter for "Google-powered result" is not yet live; use query regex (how|why|should|best way) as a proxy.
Enable GA4 Engaged Sessions and Content Grouping; export to BigQuery for longitudinal baselines.

Scenarios & Probabilities

Likely (55%) - CTR down 3-5% on informational queries; engagement up 5-10%. Net ad revenue roughly flat as RPMI compensates.
Possible (35%) - Overviews extend to commercial queries; product-page clicks fall 8-10%. Paid-search CPC rises 3-4%.
Edge (10%) - Regulatory or publisher backlash prompts an opt-out mechanism; Overview coverage shrinks, restoring pre-2024 CTR.

Risks, Unknowns, Limitations

Google's "quality click" metric is opaque; Chrome telemetry bias is unknown.
Third-party CTR panels skew toward desktop; mobile impact may be larger.
Overview citation logic is evolving; early winners may churn.
This analysis focuses on US-English data; other locales may behave differently.

Sources

Google Search Blog, 27 May 2024, "AI in Search: driving more queries, higher-quality clicks".
Google I/O Keynote, 14 May 2024, product launch notes.
Google Search Quality Rater Guidelines, February 2024 revision.
Similarweb Data Research, US Desktop SERP CTR dataset, June 2024 extract.